Trump continues to bombard Powell, the dollar hovers around 98, gold soars

On April 22, in the early Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.50. On Monday, the dollar index plummeted to its lowest level since March 2022, eventually closing down 0.885% to 98.36 as Trump's bombardment of Powell hurt investors' confidence in U.S. assets. The yield curve of US Treasury has steepened sharply, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.414%; the yield of two-year US Treasury, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.775%. Thanks to the weakening of the US dollar and the inflow of safe-haven funds, spot gold opened high and closed high, breaking the $3,430/ounce mark intraday, continuing to hit a record high, pulling up more than $100 in the day, and finally closing up 2.91% to $3,424.37/ounce. Spot silver fell back after hitting the $33/ounce mark, closing up 0.26% to $32.67/ounce. International crude oil returned to a decline, with the U.S. and Blanc falling more than 3% during the day as signs of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, while investors are still worried that the economic headwinds brought by tariffs may curb fuel demand. WTI crude oil finally closed down 1.62% at $62.67 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.81% at $65.74 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.50. The US dollar index is currently facing multiple fundamental pressures. The G20 Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors Meeting held in Washington, DC from Tuesday to Thursday will focus on the weakening of the dollar, which will undoubtedly become the market focus. The Trump administration plans to hold high-level talks with Japan and South Korea during the meeting to discuss weakness in the yen and won. dayPrime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made a tougher statement on the issue of exchange rate fairness, and it is expected that both sides will fight back against the so-called allegations of exchange rate manipulation. Technically, the US dollar index is trying to return to above the 98.50 level. If this attempt is successful, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 98.80–99.00.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1484. The EU is considering adjusting U.S. natural gas methane rules to help trade negotiations. The European Commission is developing proposals for trade talks with the United States in an attempt to avoid Trump’s planned tariffs, with both sides saying energy could be part of a broader trade deal. Optimism surrounding trade negotiations may provide some support for the euro to the dollar in the near term. Technically, the nearest support level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.1450–1.1470. If the EUR/USD falls below the 1.1450 level, it will go to the next support level 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3364. Market sentiment turned pessimistic as Washington once again threatened the Fed's independence. U.S. stocks are falling, while the dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against six currencies, including the pound, fell more than 1.09% to 98.31, its lowest level since March 2022. Chicago Federal Reserve President Ostan Goulsby said he hopes the United States will not enter an environment that questions central banks' ability to set monetary policy independent of political pressure. Technically, if GBP/USD falls below the 1.3350 level, it will move towards the nearest support level 1.3300–1.3320.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3424.92. Spot gold continued to rise, setting a record high at $3444.26 per ounce. Gold prices rose nearly 3% on Monday, up from $3,400, reaching a high of $3,430.43/ounce to close at $3,424.95/ounce. The weaker dollar and the uncertainty of the economic impact of international trade tensions on the economy have stimulated safe-haven demand. Economic data on this trading day are relatively small, but there will be many Fed officials who will make speeches, and investors need to pay attention. Pay attention to the world economic outlook report released by the IMF, pay attention to further news about the international trade situation and the performance of Asian stock markets.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the upward trend of gold prices is still in play, and it is possible to even test the $3,500/ounce mark predicted by Citigroup in the next three months. The relative strength index (RSI) turned over to overbought, indicating that gold may fall back, but breaking through the recent peak indicates that bulls may reach $3,450/ounce in the short term. Conversely, if gold prices plummet below $3,400/ounce, the first support level will be the high on April 17

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Crude oil trading around 62.87 on Tuesday. Economic data on this trading day is relatively small, but there will be many Fed officials to make speeches, and investors need to pay attention. Pay attention to the world economic outlook report released by the IMF, pay attention to further news about the international trade situation and the performance of Asian stock markets.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook tends to be bearish as crude oil prices stagnate below key technical levels and new supply risks from Iran are approaching. The decline in oil prices on Monday may be exaggerated due to insufficient liquidity caused by the Easter holiday, but the potential trend indicates that prices may still fall further. If the resistance at $63.06 cannot be regained, the support level of $59.33 may be tested in the short term, especially if the upcoming U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data exacerbates concerns about a slowdown.

Forex Market Trading Reminder April 22, 2025

①21:00 Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech

②21:00IMF releases the world economic outlook report

③22:00 Eurozone April consumer confidence index initial value

④22:00 US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

⑤22:00 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde was interviewed by the media

⑥ The next day at 01:40 US the next day at 01:40 US the next day at 02:30 New York crude oil May futures completed the last on-site transaction

⑧ The next day at 04:30 US the next day at 04:30 US the week from April 18

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